FORECASTING ASPECT OF STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC RISK

Objective. The objective of the article is to investigate methodological basis application forecasting models and methods in performing statistical assessment economic risk, particular, assess possibility reducing systematic risk through planning enterprise taking into account semi-variance approach calculation. Methods. theoretical study achievements foreign national scientists. To achieve this goal, following research are used: analysis, synthesis, abstract-logical comparative analysis classify risks their assessment; dispersion- determine level indicators volume sold industrial products by type activity; regression build forecast models, obtain future values sales for activity clarify evaluated indicators. Results. directions classification uncertainty considered, main approaches quantitative calculation analyzed, its advantages determined. It proposed use moving averages modeling determining which will more accurately take uncertain indicators, and, consequently, reduce when enterprise. In practice, calculating have been established.